The 52 Week Experiment

just another investing blog

The Saga Continues- with added Trickery

Posted by orangequant on February 2, 2007

Okay, i’m still in this play (still haven’t learned my lesson about frequency LOL).  Mostly downward movement today from my entry point.  But the trickery!!  Imagine a HUGE run Wednesday when i got in, then about a 50% pullback, forming a huge white candle with a long upper shadow.  Today we end up with a short black candle next to the upper third  of Wednesday’s candle body and what could be the start of a deadly 3-inside-down pattern.  Or, considering the huge length of Wednesday’s upper shadow, it could be a continuation pattern.  Confirmation will be needed.

The trickery here is that Wednesday was strong buying pressure, but then in spite of this the mm’s started out fresh this morning with a walkdown and a couple of hard dips to hunt stoplosses.  The stoploss hunting was effective, triggering what looked to me like a dozen automated stops and these would then be followed by 4 or 5 manual exits.  I base this estimate on times elapsed.  What i didn’t see was the exit of a lot of the elephants who climbed in on wednesday.  So maybe today’s blood sacrifice from all the little people they crushed will satisfy the mm’s.  At this point, a $1.20 close, the elephants who entered at $1.30-1.32 wednesday just aren’t likely to go away- in fact, the further price dips now the more recalcitrant they’ll get- they’ll just start averaging down and waiting for a future run.  Bull elephants in the mm’s china shop.  Orange’s Rule: never trap an elephant.  always give them a graceful exit.  And the mm’s have got at least 10 or 15 true elephants in there.  I mean people with $15-20,000 on the line and the pps is sitting on 90-day support.  anyhow, look at the chart and tell me what you think.  personally, i’ve decided to quant it tonight and see what i get.  xbxbx.png

One Response to “The Saga Continues- with added Trickery”

  1. Daniel said

    Are you still in? I know its a tough call. Idk if i would get out, or wait to see if it forms the 3 inner red candles. I dont know the name, but its a scenario. Goodluck.

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